Taiwan Strait Military Balance
Dr Dan Plesch
Director, SCRAP Weapons
James Luk
Project Assistant, SCRAP Weapons
Hugo Bainbridge
graphic designer, SCRAP Weapons
The recent U.S.-China balloon incident highlights Sino-U.S. mistrust regarding each nation’s capabilities. According to the U.S. Department of Defense, China has rapidly developed the “largest and most diverse” missile force in the world, with an inventory of more than 2,000 nuclear or high explosive non-nuclear missiles. China’s military superiority over its neighbours seriously indicates the threat of a Taiwan Strait invasion.
However, the U.S.-China military standoff still favors the US. Technology continues to evolve including cyber warfare and the potential weaponisation of space. Nevertheless, by key measures the US and its allies have a preponderance of nuclear and non-nuclear strike forces. China is estimated to have some 350 long range nuclear warheads and the U.S. 5,428. Few Chinese nuclear weapons can reach the mainland of the United States, and China fields no missile defences; in contrast the US navy has dozens of vessels close to China’s borders equipped to shoot down Chinese missiles.
In the event of a non-nuclear conflict, China is estimated to face 12 conventional surface-to-surface missile launchers from Taiwan, backed by the U.S. Navy’s 7th fleet’s 10 to 14 cruisers and destroyers that are equipped with tomahawk cruise missiles, of which the Navy has 4,000 in its inventory. Furthermore, the U.S. Navy and Airforce are taking delivery of 5,000 JASSM missiles with plans to buy as many as 10,000. China will also face an additional 500 tomahawk missiles that Japan is purchasing from the U.S., which will first deploy in 2026.
Although Chinese non-nuclear missiles can strike its neighbours, it cannot strike the U.S. In contrast, American and allied air, ground and sea launched systems such as Tomahawks and JASSMs deployed close to China’s borders have ranges up to 2,000 km, and can be deployed from transport aircraft, trucks, war ships and fighter jets, putting much of China at risk. For planners in Beijing the outlook of a successful cross-strait invasion remains bleak.
Judging capabilities rather than political intentions is a mantra of policy makers. Yet a rhetoric of fear, propped up by the U.S. and Chinese nationalist rhetoric, is still proliferating a dangerous arms race in Asia exemplified by Japan’s recent purchase of tomahawk missiles. A diplomatic track to control and reduce missiles such as the convening of a special session on disarmament at the UN General Assembly and SCRAP’s Zero Missiles initiative that proposes banning any missiles over 150km offers a soft landing from the rapidly accelerating weapons competition.
Image: US Department of Defence. The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.
Dr Dan Plesch
Director, SCRAP Weapons
James Luk
Project Assistant, SCRAP Weapons