According to the World Military Expenditure report, China’s military expenditure increased by 4.2% to reach $292 billion in 2022. But how do China’s military capabilities compare to the United States along the Taiwan Strait? This article examines China’s conventional missile capabilities in comparison with the United States and its allies to argue that diplomacy, arms control, and disarmament are necessary to avoid conflict surrounding Taiwan, not the proliferation of missiles.

In the event of a conflict across the Taiwan Strait, China’s strategy is to deny U.S. forces access to Taiwan and areas surrounding the island using a combination of missiles, cyber warfare, and space capabilities. Due to Mainland China’s geographical proximity to Taiwan, China’s area denial strategy does not depend on long-range or high-yield missile systems, but rather a smaller number of targeted, accurate and strategically placed missiles such as the DF-17 and DF-21D missile systems. The China Nuclear Weapons 2023 report published by the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists shows that two[1] out of twenty-two brigades in the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF) Eastern and Southern Theatre Commands operate the DF-17 medium-range hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV) missiles. This has caused alarm in Washington D.C. due to the missile’s ability to counter existing ballistic missile defence systems to strike U.S. military bases in the region. Another weapon system of note is the DF-21D, the first anti-ship ballistic missile developed to counter U.S. aircraft carriers, which is operated by one brigade[2] in the entire Eastern and Southern Theatre Command. Both missiles are categorised as medium-range ballistic missiles, and although there is no specific estimate of DF-17 and DF-21 stockpiles, the U.S. Department of Defense estimated the PLARF to possess 500 medium-range ballistic missiles in 2022.