The final webinar in SCRAP’s The New Cold War series witnessed a timely discussion about the future of disarmament amid US-Russia-China tensions and the prospect of a new cold war. At the start of 2022, five nuclear-weapon states – China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States of America – released a statement reaffirming Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev’s 1985 declaration that a “nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought.” They went on to restate their commitment to avoiding military confrontations, preventing an arms race, and to fulfilling their Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Article VI obligation “to pursue negotiations in good faith on effective measures relating to cessation of the nuclear arms race at an early date and to nuclear disarmament, and on a treaty on general and complete disarmament under strict and effective international control.” 

The statement was widely welcomed; however, just a few weeks after its release, Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine, veiled nuclear threats and brutal subjugation of its civilians, cast doubt on Russia’s sincerity. We are faced with an unavoidable question: what hope is there for the future of disarmament amid the most consequential large-scale European conflict since the Second World War?   

Vladimir Putin’s war has already had far-reaching implications for the future of arms control and the international security architecture. By raising the alert levels of Russia’s nuclear forces, and by reportedly considering the use of biological and chemical weapons, Putin has, in the words of UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, brought nuclear war “back within the realm of possibility.” A direct military confrontation between Russia and NATO, the world’s most heavily-armed military alliance, cannot be ruled out as tensions have risen to their highest levels in decades.     

Not only has Russia flouted international law and contravened the principles of the UN Charter by initiating an unprovoked invasion of a democratically elected sovereign nation, its actions could set in motion an arms race of global proportions, thereby potentially ripping up decades of progress in the prevention of nuclear proliferation and the reduction of arms. The war has already triggered a sea change – a Zeitenwende – in Germany’s military policy; on 27th February 2022, three days after the invasion began, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz committed to raise defence spending to NATO’s target of 2% of GDP, created a $110bn fund for the Bundeswehr, and promised to send anti-tank weapons and surface to air missiles to Ukraine. 

Meanwhile, fears of a potential nuclear arms race in Asia have intensified. During his election campaign, South Korean President-elect Yoon Sukyeol vowed to request the redeployment of American nuclear weapons on South Korean soil, 30 years after they were removed. Such a move is favoured by 56% of South Koreans according to a survey by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, while 71% support South Korea developing its own nuclear weapons. In Japan, former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has called for Japan to discuss hosting American nuclear weapons, and although the idea was rejected by Prime Minister Kishida Fumio, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has agreed to begin discussions on nuclear deterrence, a ground-breaking move that could signal the end of Japan’s pacifist worldview. Elsewhere, North Korea recently tested its largest intercontinental ballistic missile to date, the regime’s first long-range nuclear-capable missile test since 2017. And there are likely increases in defence spending among NATO countries, while the US plans to modernise its nuclear forces, and reports that China intends to double its nuclear arsenal by the end of the decade. 

With Russia increasingly isolated, and tensions between China and the US at their highest levels since the normalisation of diplomatic relations in 1978, what can be done to reboot arms control agreements, reverse the current trajectory of weapons proliferation, and achieve the ultimate goal of disarmament? Despite the war in Ukraine and Putin’s threats, the US should aim to continue to engage Russia on nuclear non-proliferation ahead of the NPT review conference later this year; after all, many of the most important arms control agreements between Russia and the US were negotiated at the height of the Cold War and Russia has historically played a crucial role in preventing nuclear proliferation. The two countries should also work to extend the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) beyond 2026, and engage with bilateral and P5 processes to meet robust arms control, disarmament, and non-proliferation objectives.

At the same time, the US should encourage China to play a larger and more responsible role in arms control agreements. This will require a raft of confidence-building measures between the two sides, especially because China sees arms control as a tool with which the US is trying to contain its rise and undermine its security. Nevertheless, China should be called upon to bolster the NPT regime and to breathe new life into the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organisation and the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons. On a bilateral level, the US and China should work together to regulate anti-satellite weapons, hypersonic weapons, cyber capabilities, and INF missiles, and the US should attend to China’s concerns over US missile defence systems.    

However, much more needs to be done to kick-start the disarmament agenda and honour the legal commitment to general and complete disarmament stipulated not just in the NPT but in Article 26 of the UN Charter and in the Atlantic Charter before that. As part of this, SCRAP Weapons is working to convene a Fourth Special Session on Disarmament at the United Nations General Assembly, at which it will present a draft treaty on disarmament and a model global weapons tracking system. As the human suffering inflicted by the war in Ukraine intensifies, and as the threat of global war looms once again, now is the time to redouble efforts to eliminate weapons and ensure true security for everyone.