Nuclear war is not a theoretical concern; it is an immediate threat. Great power rivalries in dangerous synergy with nuclear and conventional strategic weapons, and emerging technologies of AI, autonomous systems, space weapons, and cyber warfare, can fuel escalation amid collapsing global weapons governance. Current policy interventions are often reactive, set in policy frameworks of the last century. Civil society and policymakers lack tools to rehearse war prevention strategies. While some war simulators exist, they rarely include prevention strategies.
SCRAP Weapons addresses that gap through STRIVE—Strategic Trajectory & Risk Intervention Visualization Engine; a generative AI–powered platform that will enable international security and disarmament stakeholders to simulate conflict prevention pathways in dynamic, virtual environments. Using open-source datasets, historical arms flow records, and geospatial intelligence, STRIVE will explore the cause-and-effect relationships behind crisis decisions, helping users evaluate risks and preventive measures.
STRIVE will engage ecosystems of conflict prevention, from scaling up inner-city violence reduction initiatives; to UN and EU peacebuilding frameworks and reviving the UN’s practical vision of ‘civilianising’ global security. As the 1942 UN Declaration puts it, ‘for realistic as well as spiritual reasons, nations must come to abandon the use of force’.
Filling the gaps
Forecasting tools are often opaque and expensive. This project will break down those barriers in three distinct ways:
- Accessible and transparent
The open-access simulator is designed for non-specialists, where users can interrogate how and why specific outcomes emerge and avoid opaque “black box” models. - Generative AI for dynamic, adaptive scenarios
Our simulator will use generative AI fine-tuned on news sources, conflict histories, arms trade flows, and diplomatic archives to generate adaptive, nuanced, and unpredictable conflict trajectories that reflect evolving threats. - A dual-use tool for policy and education
As a professional rehearsal tool, it will support policymakers and NGOs in testing interventions and serves as a resource that immerses students in interactive, high-stakes disarmament simulations.