*The views and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the guest contributor and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of SCRAP Weapons or its partners. SCRAP Weapons provides this platform as a space for diverse dialogue and is not responsible for the accuracy or content of the perspectives shared herein.

Government transitions often spark anticipation as nations move from fragility toward stability. However, the transfer and disposal of weapons are rarely prioritized during this shift. As Somalia’s security transition takes shape, effective arms management must be a central focus. 

On December 23, 2025, the UN Security Council (UNSC) voted to extend the African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), successor to the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), until December 31, 2026. Concurrently, the UN Transitional Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNTMIS), which succeeded the United Nations Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM), is scheduled to cease operations on October 31, 2026. These transitions follow a request from the Somali government to assume full responsibility for national security and governance in light of the Somali President expressing concerns regarding external influence on the country’s internal politics.

ATMIS succeeded the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), which had operated in the country since 2007 to combat Al-Shabaab and support national stability. AMISOM primarily focused on peacekeeping and international partnerships. The transition to ATMIS emphasizes the handover of security responsibilities to Somali agencies, with the government now set to take over these critical roles despite limited resources.

ATMIS was mandated to implement the Somali Transition Plan with a focus on security. It later transitions into AUSSOM, which includes the realignment and deployment of troops, securing mission locations, the drawdown of forces, and the eventual exit of the mission. The purpose of UNTMIS, which started in 2024, is to support Somali institutions to operate effectively after the transition. ATMIS completed the handover in November 2024, with the last operating base transferred to the Somali National Armed Forces (SNAF). In total, 21 military bases were handed over, and 9,000 troops were withdrawn from the country. The transition process continues through AUSSOM.

2026 will be a defining year in Somalia’s peace process as supportive missions that began in 2007 close during the transition. As this process begins, concern remains about the fate of weapons used during the conflict. Proper disposal of weapons is critical because poor handling increases proliferation in the region, contributes to illicit arms trafficking and smuggling, and threatens peacebuilding gains.

Transitions create gaps in the management of weapons and ammunition. Systems change and the illicit movement of arms increase. This fuels insecurity across borders, especially in a volatile region such as Sudan, South Sudan, and the Democratic Republic of Congo, and is prone to cross-border crimes like cattle rustling, among others. Previous studies by Civilians in Conflict have shown that once peacekeeping missions withdraw, a couple of challenges are bound to creep up. These include gaps in physical protection of civilians and, in some instances, like in Mali, funding for mines was cut from $3-4 million to less than $1 million. 

Disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration initiatives are tied to the mandate of UN missions, creating a policy vacuum for civilian arms control when missions end. If this occurs in Somalia, Al-Shabaab could exploit poorly stored weaponry, undoing years of security progress. The Somali government is under intense pressure to ensure readiness against potential offensives, yet it must do so while transitioning to national ownership with limited external funding. This combination of increased responsibility and reduced resources creates gaps that Al-Shabaab is likely to target.

It is important for the closing down missions to account for the weapons as they exit, though it is often difficult to enforce due to inadequate logistical support, which has been a recurring challenge encountered by the Somali mission. Financial struggles have persisted over the course of these missions as a result of unfulfilled pledges by the supporting countries over the years.

The Central Monitoring Department has been mandated to continue with the process of weapons and ammunition management as part of establishing a weapons and ammunition management system. This department will be vital in supporting the efforts of disarmament, as it will account for the weapons in circulation, and should it fail, the threat of illicit movement of arms will remain and strengthen Al-Shabaab’s access to weapons and ammunition. Currently, the Somali government relies on the International Tracing Instrument to trace and identify weapons, illicit small arms, and weapons in addition to the Global Framework for Through-Life conventional ammunition management as instruments in its weapons and ammunition management. The Department has been overseeing the storage facilities across the country to support the physical storage of these weapons. The department also received support from the Mine Action Service through training.

Poor weapons and ammunition management after conflict leads to diversion, and in this case, the transition makes them a risk to the peacebuilding process because they often land in the hands of civilians, terrorist groups, or transnational criminal actors. Weapons in the hands of any of these three are a threat because terrorists will use them to re-arm, while transnational criminal actors will smuggle or traffic them across borders, and in the hands of civilians, gun-related crime like robberies is likely to increase.

As the transition process takes shape in Somalia, the UN Security Council encouraged the government of Somalia to ensure registration of ammunition, military equipment, and weapons taken from Al-Shaabab as well as any operations against the terrorist group, to support weapons and ammunition management. This is a gap that will be left by the mission, and if poorly handled, could derail the peace process or create unrest, as was the case in Sudan during the 2021 transition.

Transition Missions need to include weapons handover as one of their priority areas because poor handling could derail the peace process. Somalia won’t be the first country to deal with the struggles of transition, especially where weapons are involved, because after the gunfire has lessened, the harm from weapons continues from landmines and bombs, killing people and maiming others. In the case of Sudan, a peacekeeping Mission was established in 2007 to address the humanitarian crisis caused by violent conflict in the country. The Mission worked on ending its operations between 2019-2021, but as soon as the mission ended, robberies and other forms of unrest took place before the 2023 conflict. Unfortunately, part of the legacy of peacekeeping missions, as in Sudan, seems to include militarization. 

As weapons are a priority on the battlefield, they should be handled with the same precedence during the transition process, which serves as an end line to conflict. Actors in the transition process must incorporate weapons handover not as an afterthought but as a key factor because of the role they play in destabilizing peacebuilding processes. 

Previous peacekeeping missions and transitions provide lessons on the gaps, progress, and challenges that Somalia could learn from. to avoid previous mistakes in Sudan. The transition in Somalia is a high-stakes move as Al-Shabaab, its biggest security threat to the country, remains strong and able to launch attacks. If the transition is mishandled in any way, the country could suffer more security challenges.